"Beyond the launches themselves, the DPRK’s threats to broader security were demonstrated clearly by Kim Jong-un’s visit to Moscow this month. Now, we’re seeing this a two-way street that is increasingly dangerous, with on the one hand a Russia desperate to find equipment, supplies, technology for its ongoing aggression against Ukraine, but also a DPRK that is looking for help to strengthen and advance its own missile programs. We’re working hand-in-hand with other partners and allies to highlight the dangerous ways Russian and North Korea’s military cooperation threaten global peace and security."

The Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) has suffered a series of major attacks in recent weeks, culminating in strikes on its headquarters on 20 and 22 September 2023. These attacks have been more damaging and more coordinated than thus far in the war.

The physical damage to the BSF is almost certainly severe but localised. The fleet almost certainly remains capable of fulfilling its core wartime missions of cruise missile strikes and local security patrols. It is, however, likely that its ability to continue wider regional security patrols and enforce its de facto blockade of Ukrainian ports will be diminished. It also likely has a degraded ability to defend its assets in port and to conduct routine maintenance.

A dynamic, deep strike battle is underway in the Black Sea. This is likely forcing Russia into a reactive posture whilst demonstrating that Ukraine’s military can undermine the Kremlin’s symbolic and strategic power projection from its warm water port in occupied Sevastopol.